New research reveals urban security has been designed around the wrong assumptions – and shows how to fix it.
For decades, urban security planning has operated on a simple assumption: if you can stop a 40-tonne truck, you can stop anything. This logic has shaped everything from bollard spacing to impact ratings, creating security systems designed around the largest possible threat.
New research from Core42 suggests this approach fundamentally misunderstands the actual risk.
We Need to Talk About Cars
Core42 has analysed 121 vehicle ramming incidents worldwide, revealing a striking pattern: the deadliest attacks use everyday vehicles, not trucks. Utility vehicles and light trucks – the kind you see delivering parcels or picking up shopping – cause an average of 5.1 fatalities per attack, actually surpassing heavy vehicles in lethality.
These vehicles weigh 3,500kg or less. They’re accessible, doesn’t require any specific knowledge to drive, and can navigate pedestrian areas that would challenge larger vehicles. Most critically, they can exploit the gaps that truck-focused barriers leave unprotected.
The research shows that whilst security planning assumes attackers will use the largest vehicle possible, real attackers consistently choose smaller, more practical options. We’ve been designing for the threat we feared, not the threat that exists.
The Protection Gap
This mismatch helps explain another sobering finding: only 25% of attacks encounter any barriers at all. The remaining 75% of incidents occur in completely unprotected spaces.
This isn’t security negligence. Cities face an impossible choice between permanent fortification and preserving the openness that makes urban life possible. When security measures are massive, intrusive, and permanent, most cities understandably choose to remain unprotected rather than fundamentally alter their character.
The current approach forces communities to accept fortress-like infrastructure to address threats that, the data shows, primarily come from ordinary vehicles.
Security of the Right Size
Understanding the actual threat profile changes everything about security design. If you’re stopping a 2,500kg van rather than a 40-tonne truck, you need fundamentally different solutions.
Car-scale security can be proportionate, elegant, and far less intrusive whilst remaining highly effective. This isn’t about lowering protection standards – it’s about matching protection to the actual threat rather than hypothetical worst cases.
The research validates an approach many have suspected: effective urban security should be designed around statistical likelihood, not theoretical maximums. When 80% of attacks involve vehicles under 3,500kg, protection systems should reflect this reality.
Installation Reality
Right-sizing security also transforms installation requirements. Car-appropriate protection systems require less substantial foundations, smaller equipment, and shorter installation periods than truck-focused alternatives.
This matters because installation disruption often determines whether cities implement protection at all. When security deployment requires months of road closures and community disruption, many cities simply choose to remain unprotected.
Car-scale security enables strategic, efficient installations that respect urban rhythms whilst providing effective protection. One comprehensive installation can enable flexible deployment and retraction rather than permanent disruption.
Looking Forward
Vehicle ramming represents an evolving threat that urban security must address more intelligently. The research shows attacks are becoming more frequent whilst remaining concentrated in everyday vehicle categories.
Traditional approaches – designing for maximum theoretical threats with permanent installations – have proven inadequate. Most cities reject this model, leaving communities vulnerable to statistically likely attacks using ordinary vehicles.
The solution isn’t bigger barriers – it’s smarter barriers designed around actual threat patterns rather than worst-case scenarios. When security systems match the scale and flexibility of urban life whilst addressing real statistical risks, cities can finally achieve both protection and livability.
This article is based on the report, “2025 – The Open City Exposed” by Core42
